Accuweather Says Winter In Upstate New York Will Be Busy

According to the weather forecaster, Accuweather, upstate New York  could be in for a busy season on account of a higher than average snowfall.

Accuweather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok was reported to have said to the press, “We could have a pretty busy season as far as lake-effect snow goes...”

The official government forecast from the NOAA (National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center), differs. NOAA’s annual winter outlook—for December, January and February, which is what meteorologists call “winter”—predicts above-normal temperatures. Higher temperatures usually result in less snow (and more ice and freezing rain.) Ergo, a less busy season.

Accuweather forecast

NOAA’s 2021-2022 winter outlook

So what's the prediction for winter in upstate New York?

So, will it be a colder winter? Or a warmer, wetter winter?

Some point out that NOAA’s prediction about winter in upstate New York last year came true last year, with less snow and higher temperatures.

Others break down the odds and say that the odds favor the NOAA over Accuweather. If the odds of a warmer winter is about half, the chance of a normal winter would be about a third, or 33% and therefore, a colder winter is only about 17% possible.

An Accuweather meteorologist was reported as saying that Accuweather’s forecast is different from the NOAA’s as the Accuweather method relied on empirical data from the years when conditions were most similar to the current period.

And an NOAA meteorologist, Jon Gottschalck reportedly said that forecasts are probabilities. “The nature of a probabilistic forecast means that other outcomes are always possible, but just less likely,” he was quoted as saying.

In their website, Accuweather reports that areas closer to the coast, such as Boston, New York City and the rest of the Interstate-95 corridor, could also get the chance of early-season cold and snow, but it is not predicted to be as cold or as snowy as across areas farther inland.

The severity and frequency of the snow and cold air are likely to let up a bit by mid-December before returning with a vengeance in January, the website said.

A colder, busy winter would augur well for a region that is still recovering from the recent pandemic lockdowns. The beneficiaries of a busy winter would be the many resorts, attractions and tourism in general, as winter in upstate New York is home to skiing, snowboarding, ice fishing, snow mobiles and a whole lot of outdoor, snow-based fun.

Read “Planning For Winter In Upstate New York”.